Reflecting on 2025
It was a year dominated by regulatory hurdles, with uncertainty around the Budget causing a slowdown in house purchases in the latter half of the year.
Since coming to power the Labour government has established a bad habit of floating radical ideas in public, for example the notion that stamp duty could be scrapped or that income and inheritance tax could be equalised. However, when push comes to shove Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves rarely do anything radical, which has the effect of creating a jittery market followed by a period of relief – the latest example of which happened after the Autumn Budget on 26 November. It also damages the government’s credibility, which likely has something to do with Labour’s lacklustre performance in the polls.
I don’t expect the Autumn Budget changes to have much of an adverse effect on property investment in 2026.
While the surcharge affecting properties worth over £2 million – AKA Mansion tax – will frustrate those at the top end of the market, it’s impact will only affect a minority of homeowners, mainly in London’s wealthiest boroughs. It also won’t happen till April 2028, so I don’t expect it to dampen down the market much.
Labour’s move to increase tax on rental income by 2% to 22%, 42%, and 47% for basic, higher and additional rate taxpayers is also unlikely to have a seismic effect on the market. All it does is give investors an even bigger reason to invest via a limited company, which was already a trend. It also doesn’t come into effect until April 2027.
These changes seem less impactful than the increase to the stamp duty surcharge from 3% to 5% in the 2024 Autumn Budget, which has likely dampened down landlord purchase ever since.
A busy start to the year
2026 is likely to start with something of a bang.
There are already signs that activity spiked after the Autumn Budget on November 26, while this will surely only intensify once we get through the Christmas period. January is a time to make new resolutions, so it’s likely more people will decide to jump at the chance to buy.
There are also underlying factors favouring a busier housing market, as the Bank of England base rate is slowly coming down, as it’s fallen from 4.75% to 3.75% in a single calendar year. This will improve affordability, giving more people the power to buy.
It seems likely mortgage rules will be loosened, helping the self-employed and people on lower incomes qualify for a mortgage.
Despite this positivity, it’s unlikely private landlords will drive the market. The 5% stamp duty surcharge means investors will only look to buy if they reckon they can offset that big upfront cost.
More evictions in Q1 2026
The Renters’ Rights Act will come into force in May 1 2026, which will bring in the Section 21 eviction ban, a landlord database and introduction of a property ombudsman.
Given what’s coming, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a spike in eviction notices in the first quarter. While everyone has an opinion on Section 21, once it’s scrapped it will become more problematic for landlords to evict a bad tenant.
The court system has been creaking for some time, with it taking many months to get a court date, escalate cases to the high court and get a court-appointed bailiff – and I see no reason why this wouldn’t get even worse without Section 21.
While the government has allocated more funds to digitise the possession service, I question whether this will do enough to offset what will be an increase in landlords using the Section 8 route. Assuming technology will solve all problems seems naïve, but it’s symptomatic of a world where AI is being introduced in every industry to seemingly solve every problem. In the current world we’re in, you’re lucky this article was written by a human.
If the court system does get even worse, groups like the National Residential Landlords Association need to shout loud and wide. Being able to evict a tenant without just cause does feel incompatible with 2026, but the ‘at fault’ route must be fit for purpose for the market to have a sense of fairness for landlords and rentnats.
Corporatisation of the rental market
The government is creating the conditions for large institutional investors and corporate landlords to take a bigger share of the rental market.
It could take landlords years to make back the 5% stamp duty surcharge alone, while corporate landlords can swallow such costs and take more of a long-term view. While upfront costs have risen, there will never be a shortage of UK tenants looking to rent in the UK’s most attractive cities, so rents are likely to still continue rising for those already invested.
In Scotland this corporatisation is likely to be even more apparent, as the Additional Dwelling Supplement of 8% is now so steep that few small-time landlords will want to pay it. Furthermore, acquiring six or more properties can reduce the tax burden for large corporate landlords.
It remains to be seen whether this slow shift to faceless professionalism is a positive one – but whatever happens we’ll be on hand to give you the latest updates.
Thanks for reading, and Happy New Year!